The rise of electric vehicles is having a knock-on effect on the global demand for aluminium.
Electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid EVs sales are expected to reach 17.1m vehicles in 2028. That would be up by 61% from 2023, where expected sales hit around 10.6m. But the future success of EV manufacturing will heavily rely on being able to secure aluminium for production. By 2030, demand for aluminium is expected to surge by approximately 40%, driven by its lightweight nature and superior thermal conductivity. These properties make aluminium an ideal material for EV components, as its lightness is crucial for the vehicle efficiency by reducing power requirements, and its thermal conductivity offers excellent protection for EV batteries.
The global drive for decarbonisation is undoubtedly driving the EV market, but it’s also adding an extra pressure on the demand for aluminium as the metal is crucial for other green technologies (like solar) and is more environmentally friendly because of its recyclability. Unfortunately, there are significant challenges with the current supply of aluminium in the West – largely because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not only is Russia a major supplier, the subsequent energy crisis has made the production of aluminium unsustainable for many European smelters, leading to closures and a curtailing of production. The industry was already facing pressure from China flooding the market with low-cost imports.
Despite the challenges, there is still the potential to scale the supply of aluminium as long as a strategic effort is made to focus resources on producing the metal. This is why the EU has added aluminium to its Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) list, which recognises the importance of certain materials for delivering a secure and sustainable green economy.
A breakthrough in aluminium-air battery technology might further increase demand
While there are challenges to overcome with the supply of aluminium, they are small when compared to the issues surrounding another key EV material: lithium. Lithium needs to be mined, and that process has obvious environmental ramifications (which go against the aim of securing a greener future). There’s also a limited global supply of lithium, and nearly a quarter of it is produced in politically unstable countries.
Here aluminium may also have a role to play. One exciting example of current EV research and development is aluminium-air (AL-air) batteries where the aluminium reacts with oxygen to produce power. AL-air batteries have a much higher energy density than lithium-ion batteries, so more energy can be stored in the same space. It’s lighter too, so the overall effect is a battery with a higher travel range that would be similar to petrol-powered cars. The lightness of AL-air batteries makes them a contender for use in electric aviation technology, where weight has been a significant hindrance in the past.
Better still, AL-air batteries don’t need any lithium so, if the technology can be successfully developed in a way that can be commercially manufactured, there’s huge potential for overcoming many of the supply and environmental challenges associated with sourcing lithium.
While a breakthrough in AL-air battery technology would add a further pressure on the demand for aluminium, its potential benefits are too exciting to ignore, from more efficient electric cars to commercially viable electric aircrafts, powering us into a new stage of the EV revolution.
To help make breakthroughs in R&D more likely, the UK government offers financial incentives to support business investment in innovation. Companies working in either the EV tech or aluminium battery space who are looking to take advantage of such incentives can speak to our partners Leyton UK, who help businesses working on cutting-edge projects in science and technology claim R&D tax credits.
Kashif Rameez MSc MPhil IMechE (Associate Director – R&D Tax Incentives)
